I predict a ... win

Having added a post yesterday, it was interesting to again read my post of 6 February. At that time I predicted optimistically that we would get 15 points from the 7 games after Palaaarse. From a pessimistic viewpoint I predicted 8 points.

In actual fact we only managed to get 6 points !

Oh well, onwards and upwards … I predict a Charlton win tomorrow. For a change, we are the underdogs, and Ipswich are on a poor run. Holland to get a terrific welcome from the home fans and will then set up Ambrose for a stunning goal from outside the area.

Sounds like there are going to be a lot of inflatables and beach balls at Portman Road so let’s hope the team add to the fun atmosphere!


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Memories

For the 2nd time since I started this blog there has been a long gap between postings.

This time nothing to do with internet problems but instead a combination of overseas business trips, holiday, and finally a damaged hamstring which meant I have been unable to attend any games for a while.

The last game that I actually managed to attend was Palaaarse at home … thank god I managed to get to that one! No need to remind everyone what happened as it will be in our memories for a long time!!

But how things have changed in the table since then.

After the Palaaarse game it looked like this:

1. Watford 55
2. WBA 54
3. Bristol City 54
4. Stoke 53
5. Charlton 50
6. Ipswich 45

And now …

1. Bristol City 67
2. Stoke 66
3. Watford 63
4. WBA 62
5. Charlton 56
6. Hull 56

Bristol and Stoke have swapped places with WBA and Watford whilst Ipswich have moved down to be replaced by Hull (who thankfully lost last night).

And Charlton … haven’t moved! Which is actually astonishing. I am not sure how we are hanging on bearing in mind that since Palaaarse we have played 7 games. Drawing 3, losing 3 and only winning one game !!!

If I had to miss a block of games it is perhaps fortunate that it has been at this time of the season. In fact I will miss one more, Ipswich away on Saturday … which is a pity as it would have been fun to take a seat on the Charlton Lifers coach. Well, at least my son will be going, his first trip there, and is staying the weekend with a friend who now lives up there.

The interesting thing about the games that I missed is that most of them bring back some good memories of games gone past.

Blackpool away: one of the windiest and coldest games I ever attended. Walking along the front at Blackpool was like walking into a hurricane and no bars or cafes were open on the front. We managed to find an empty bar about 4 or 5 streets back from the front. Arriving at the ground we were amazed to see that we were to be joined by a few dozen Blackburn fans. Their game had been cancelled and because they hated Blackpool they decided to come and support us! I can’t remember if this was the game we lost 2-1 or 5-1 but it was certainly in January and in the mid to late 70’s.

Preston home. A never to be forgotten game for those that were there in 1975. We had a 20,000 plus crowd and knew we would be promoted from the old 3rd division if we won. One nil down at half-time, we came back to win 3-1 with a goal from Bobby Goldthorpe and a double by Killer. Then after the whistle went, the entire Covered End invaded the pitch shouting for Andy Nelson and Killer.

Burnley away. 1977, 4-1 up with 10 minutes to go and we almost contrived to lose with the final score 4-4. Burnley hit the post and bar and it was so nearly a defeat! Also remembered for the amount of fireworks being thrown at us by the Burnley fans.

To all those going to Ipswich on Saturday, have a great time … and hopefully enjoy a win.

I’ll be back at the Valley for the Albion game and cannot wait to get back despite our indifferent form.

C’mon you Reds!!!


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Points Total

Blackheath Addicted recently made a good statistical summary of the points that have been required for promotion over the last few years. This made me wonder how many points we can reasonably achieve. Predicting results obviously depends on the mood you are in … after Stoke optimistic, after Scunny pessimistic.

So I have tried to predict based on both moods!

Optimistic
Palaaarse (H) WIN
Sheff Wed (A) WIN
Watford (H) WIN
Blackpool (A) DRAW
Sheff Utd (A) DRAW
Bristol City (H) WIN
Preston (H) WIN
Burnley (A) DRAW
Ipswich (A) LOSS
West Brom (H) DRAW
Wolves (H) WIN
Plymouth (A) WIN
Southampton (H) WIN
QPR (A) DRAW
Barnsley (A) WIN
Coventry (H) WIN
Total points: 35


Pessimistic
Palaaarse (H) DRAW
Sheff Wed (A) DRAW
Watford (H) DRAW
Blackpool (A) DRAW
Sheff Utd (A) DRAW
Bristol City (H) DRAW
Preston (H) WIN
Burnley (A) LOSS
Ipswich (A) LOSS
West Brom (H) DRAW
Wolves (H) WIN
Plymouth (A) WIN
Southampton (H) WIN
QPR (A) LOSS
Barnsley (A) DRAW
Coventry (H) DRAW
Total points: 21

So with a current points total of 47, this gives us 82 if I feel good, and 68 if I feel bad. However, I am naturally a positive person so let’s go for 82.

According to Blackheath Addicted, in order to become Champions, the average number of points is 97 and the overall spread 88-105 … so we are going to miss that. For runners-up, the points spread is 86-92 … so still not enough!

The lowest points total for getting sixth place is 73 and the highest 76 so this puts us somewhere in the playoffs.

In view of the tightness of this division, I believe that the amassed points total for most teams will be lower than previous seasons … and that 83/84 points may be enough for runners-up spot ... which means that I am going to have to find an extra couple of points for my optimistic prediction ... in which case, I will now go for a win at Blackpool … there you go, runners-up spot in the bag!


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Flat Iron

Right, let’s start on the positives shall we?

Excellent journey up there, on the coach at Bexleyheath at 8.00am and in the pub by Scunthorpe’s ground at 12.45 … and that included a 40 minute stop at Leicester service station.

Good pub and stayed for 3 pints of a very decent Guinness. And it made a refreshing change to be allowed in a pub full of both sets of supporters, colours on both sides openly shown, and not a hint of trouble!

On to the ground and one of the best bacon rolls I have ever had … at least 5 rashers of hot bacon in a very nice bap. All for 2 quid! Charlton caterers, take note. If Scunny can do it, why can’t you? The bacon rolls at Charlton are normally lukewarm (if you are lucky), include scarcely any bacon, and cost more!

Lots of Charlton in the ground. We were in the right hand side of the stand, which seemed to be full of singers and we did not stop singing for most of the game. Helped the atmosphere in that the section next to us had a few Scunny ‘hard-men’ dressed in their Stone Island and Burberry and were the brunt of a number of songs.

So what else was good? Oh yeah, the journey home … in the coach at 5.15 and back to my house at 9.20 … a great run which still managed a service station stop on the way back. What was it with the roads yesterday … no traffic and no road-works … why can’t it always be like this.

So, there you go, a summary of the day. What do you mean, you thought I was going to a football game? Actually I thought I was too but the rubbish dished up in the ground yesterday had little resemblance to football, and was a total reverse of the way we have played over the last few games.

Scunny had little more than one shot on goal but still managed to score, albeit due to an uncharacteristic cock-up by Yassin. They played the last 20 minutes with 10 men which was still too powerful for an underperforming Charlton side.

I don’t think anyone particularly impressed so it is probably unfair to pick on anyone, but I will anyway!

Ambrose had a woeful game, but the worst of it has to be his corners. He took 6 or 7 and not one managed to clear the first defender!!! Come on Dazza, this is basic football!

And I will also criticise my current favourite … ZZ seemed to have half, if not all, of his mind on the China game this week. Has to be his weakest game yet, and I hope this doesn’t happen again when he has a China game on the horizon.

Overall, this was a crap day … we could have gone within 2 points of automatic promotion and blew it again.

Palaaarse on Friday? It’s always been a must-win game for so many reasons, but the 3 points are now essential to keep us on track. Other blogs have done the maths and looked at past statistics … it is clear that we need to average 2 points a game for automatic promotion. Well, with yesterday’s result that now means we have to win the next 2 games.

Check out Blackheath Addicted for ratings and a good report, All Quiet in the East Stand who sounds as pissed off as me, and Pedro45 who must have been sitting almost next to me judging by the picture in his report.


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Stoke via SMS

Being in Frankfurt I had to rely on my son to send me text messages from the ground.

19.09
Me: C’mon you Reds!

19.27
Me: 3-2, ZZ to score first and Gray double.

19.41
Son: I’ve just done Zhi to score first and us to win 2-1

20.36
Son: 0-0 half-time. Stoke haven’t had a shot on goal. We’ve had about 6 chances.

20.38
Me: Good but worrying. Gray and Varney playing?

20.41
Son: Gray and Iwelumo

20.42
Me: Wrong!!!

21.14
Son: Varney just come on for Iwelumo

21.15
Me: Good

21.32
Son: Sam scored!

21.33
Me: Yehhhh, c’mon reds!

21.48
Son: Won 1-0. Holland and Moo2 were amazing. Stoke dirtiest team ever seen and only got one booking. West Brom lost. Watford drew. Awesome.

21.49
Me: Fantastic, bring on Scunny! The season is turning around.

22.06
Son: It sure is. I’ve completely lost my voice. Well up for Scunny. Gray looks pretty decent.

I cannot wait until Saturday, should be a great day at Scunthorpe and hopefully there will be a lot of us there. Call me optimistic, but I am getting good feelings about this season!


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Missed games

I will be back in Frankfurt on Monday so will miss the Stoke game ... typical when it looks like it will be a good night. Once again, will have to rely on text updates from the ground from my son. Although last time that happened we beat Stockport 4-3 ... and I predicted the score correctly. So this time I'm going for 3-2 to Charlton!

Will be back on Friday 1st Feb and going to Scunny the next day ... this is one I have been looking forward to all season. New ground and with our away form, we have a good chance of victory.

Back to Frankfurt again the following Monday but have made sure that I return on Thursday 7th Feb ... I am NOT going to be late for the Palaaarse game!!!

Hopefully it will be the result we need as I have to fly to Singapore on business the next day and that's a long way to travel when you are pissed off. I arrive in Singapore on the Sunday night, run a workshop all day Monday, fly back Monday night and arrive in London early on Tuesday ... and then go on holiday to the Canaries the next day for 2 weeks deserved rest!

It means I miss the Watford home game but I am hopeful that I can find a bar over there that will show the game ... if anyone knows of such a possibility let me know.

A lot of good games coming up ... we should know by the end of February whether we are going for a playoff place or automatic promotion. I'm still optimistic!


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Day the music died

EMI to slash jobs and change the business model.

This has me worried. Actually, no it doesn’t … it completely pees me off. New music is the lifeblood of the medium. Without it, music will die.

And yet the new owners of EMI seem determined to take a short-term approach to the business and destroy any chance that new acts have of breaking through. Short-termism will not work … however many big acts they have on their books, they will need new music to take them through to the medium and long-term.

They certainly understand business and how to make money … but do they understand music?

My work is Product Management, so I know as much as anyone that when a business needs to be changed it has to be either streamlined, re-vitalised, or innovated … but NOT without taking your eye away from the medium term. Short-term solutions have only short-term effects.

I do agree with one of their announcements which is to end huge advances paid to certain artists … this is as obscene as the amount of money that footballers can earn and makes sense. They even intimate that perhaps some acts could be paid salaries or daily rates whilst they work on their new material … I’m not saying this will work but it’s an innovative idea and deserves consideration.

I also like their idea of limiting some bands to single track downloads over the internet rather than trying to force whole albums out of possible one or two hit wonders.

But certain comments from the new owner worry me, e.g. ‘we need to be selective who we provide a service to’.

Does this mean that new bands will not get a look in until they have somehow proved themselves, a impossible Catch-22 situation?


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