Points Total

Blackheath Addicted recently made a good statistical summary of the points that have been required for promotion over the last few years. This made me wonder how many points we can reasonably achieve. Predicting results obviously depends on the mood you are in … after Stoke optimistic, after Scunny pessimistic.

So I have tried to predict based on both moods!

Optimistic
Palaaarse (H) WIN
Sheff Wed (A) WIN
Watford (H) WIN
Blackpool (A) DRAW
Sheff Utd (A) DRAW
Bristol City (H) WIN
Preston (H) WIN
Burnley (A) DRAW
Ipswich (A) LOSS
West Brom (H) DRAW
Wolves (H) WIN
Plymouth (A) WIN
Southampton (H) WIN
QPR (A) DRAW
Barnsley (A) WIN
Coventry (H) WIN
Total points: 35


Pessimistic
Palaaarse (H) DRAW
Sheff Wed (A) DRAW
Watford (H) DRAW
Blackpool (A) DRAW
Sheff Utd (A) DRAW
Bristol City (H) DRAW
Preston (H) WIN
Burnley (A) LOSS
Ipswich (A) LOSS
West Brom (H) DRAW
Wolves (H) WIN
Plymouth (A) WIN
Southampton (H) WIN
QPR (A) LOSS
Barnsley (A) DRAW
Coventry (H) DRAW
Total points: 21

So with a current points total of 47, this gives us 82 if I feel good, and 68 if I feel bad. However, I am naturally a positive person so let’s go for 82.

According to Blackheath Addicted, in order to become Champions, the average number of points is 97 and the overall spread 88-105 … so we are going to miss that. For runners-up, the points spread is 86-92 … so still not enough!

The lowest points total for getting sixth place is 73 and the highest 76 so this puts us somewhere in the playoffs.

In view of the tightness of this division, I believe that the amassed points total for most teams will be lower than previous seasons … and that 83/84 points may be enough for runners-up spot ... which means that I am going to have to find an extra couple of points for my optimistic prediction ... in which case, I will now go for a win at Blackpool … there you go, runners-up spot in the bag!