Blackheath Addicted recently made a good statistical summary of the points that have been required for promotion over the last few years. This made me wonder how many points we can reasonably achieve. Predicting results obviously depends on the mood you are in … after Stoke optimistic, after Scunny pessimistic.

So I have tried to predict based on both moods!

Optimistic
Palaaarse (H) WIN
Sheff Wed (A) WIN
Watford (H) WIN
Blackpool (A) DRAW
Sheff Utd (A) DRAW
Bristol City (H) WIN
Preston (H) WIN
Burnley (A) DRAW
Ipswich (A) LOSS
West Brom (H) DRAW
Wolves (H) WIN
Plymouth (A) WIN
Southampton (H) WIN
QPR (A) DRAW
Barnsley (A) WIN
Coventry (H) WIN
Total points: 35


Pessimistic
Palaaarse (H) DRAW
Sheff Wed (A) DRAW
Watford (H) DRAW
Blackpool (A) DRAW
Sheff Utd (A) DRAW
Bristol City (H) DRAW
Preston (H) WIN
Burnley (A) LOSS
Ipswich (A) LOSS
West Brom (H) DRAW
Wolves (H) WIN
Plymouth (A) WIN
Southampton (H) WIN
QPR (A) LOSS
Barnsley (A) DRAW
Coventry (H) DRAW
Total points: 21

So with a current points total of 47, this gives us 82 if I feel good, and 68 if I feel bad. However, I am naturally a positive person so let’s go for 82.

According to Blackheath Addicted, in order to become Champions, the average number of points is 97 and the overall spread 88-105 … so we are going to miss that. For runners-up, the points spread is 86-92 … so still not enough!

The lowest points total for getting sixth place is 73 and the highest 76 so this puts us somewhere in the playoffs.

In view of the tightness of this division, I believe that the amassed points total for most teams will be lower than previous seasons … and that 83/84 points may be enough for runners-up spot ... which means that I am going to have to find an extra couple of points for my optimistic prediction ... in which case, I will now go for a win at Blackpool … there you go, runners-up spot in the bag!

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Right, let’s start on the positives shall we?

Excellent journey up there, on the coach at Bexleyheath at 8.00am and in the pub by Scunthorpe’s ground at 12.45 … and that included a 40 minute stop at Leicester service station.

Good pub and stayed for 3 pints of a very decent Guinness. And it made a refreshing change to be allowed in a pub full of both sets of supporters, colours on both sides openly shown, and not a hint of trouble!

On to the ground and one of the best bacon rolls I have ever had … at least 5 rashers of hot bacon in a very nice bap. All for 2 quid! Charlton caterers, take note. If Scunny can do it, why can’t you? The bacon rolls at Charlton are normally lukewarm (if you are lucky), include scarcely any bacon, and cost more!

Lots of Charlton in the ground. We were in the right hand side of the stand, which seemed to be full of singers and we did not stop singing for most of the game. Helped the atmosphere in that the section next to us had a few Scunny ‘hard-men’ dressed in their Stone Island and Burberry and were the brunt of a number of songs.

So what else was good? Oh yeah, the journey home … in the coach at 5.15 and back to my house at 9.20 … a great run which still managed a service station stop on the way back. What was it with the roads yesterday … no traffic and no road-works … why can’t it always be like this.

So, there you go, a summary of the day. What do you mean, you thought I was going to a football game? Actually I thought I was too but the rubbish dished up in the ground yesterday had little resemblance to football, and was a total reverse of the way we have played over the last few games.

Scunny had little more than one shot on goal but still managed to score, albeit due to an uncharacteristic cock-up by Yassin. They played the last 20 minutes with 10 men which was still too powerful for an underperforming Charlton side.

I don’t think anyone particularly impressed so it is probably unfair to pick on anyone, but I will anyway!

Ambrose had a woeful game, but the worst of it has to be his corners. He took 6 or 7 and not one managed to clear the first defender!!! Come on Dazza, this is basic football!

And I will also criticise my current favourite … ZZ seemed to have half, if not all, of his mind on the China game this week. Has to be his weakest game yet, and I hope this doesn’t happen again when he has a China game on the horizon.

Overall, this was a crap day … we could have gone within 2 points of automatic promotion and blew it again.

Palaaarse on Friday? It’s always been a must-win game for so many reasons, but the 3 points are now essential to keep us on track. Other blogs have done the maths and looked at past statistics … it is clear that we need to average 2 points a game for automatic promotion. Well, with yesterday’s result that now means we have to win the next 2 games.

Check out Blackheath Addicted for ratings and a good report, All Quiet in the East Stand who sounds as pissed off as me, and Pedro45 who must have been sitting almost next to me judging by the picture in his report.

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