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So many great Charlton blogs around that I keep forgetting I have one of my own ... which means that once again it has been sorely neglected.
But looking at Division One tables from the last few years prompted me to post again. Even with our great start, what are the real chances of promotion based on the last seven years records?
The answers are not only very revealing ... they are also quite intriguing. Yes, it can still all go wrong ... hard for us to wipe out the memories of the last few years ... but statistically it's looking extremely positive.
First of all, looking at the number of points that have been required over the last seven years in order to achieve promotion in 2nd spot ... and just to make things interesting, how many games the 2nd place team could afford to lose.
So using this table as the base, it means that an average of 86 points has been required to achieve promotion in 2nd place, whilst experiencing an average of 10 defeats throughout the season.
Looking at Charlton as of today, after 19 games and one defeat, we would appear to be in an incredibly strong position:
So ... apparently 40 points to be obtained ... obviously many different permutations for this to be achieved ....
.... but applying the seven season statistic that a team can lose 10 games, then the below is probably the closest we can get to foretelling how the season should pan out in order for us to go up:
Based on our existing form, this should be eminently achievable ... but of course all sorts of things could happen between now and May ... injuries, suspensions, other teams having incredible runs of form, etc.
However, what is very apparent is that this is now completely in our own hands ... 12 wins from the remaining 27 games, when we have already won 14 times in 19 games ... I don't need to expand any further to be honest.
Is this our year? Well, I rarely bet but before this season started I laid out a reasonable amount at the bookies backing Charlton for automatic promotion and it's certainly looking like the team had the same confidence that I had by taking this division by storm.
Whatever happens, I can safely say that we finally have our Charlton back after so many seasons of misery ... this team is committed to the cause, more than capable, and backed by one of the most promising managers in the league ... not forgetting of course the Mysterons in the background supporting us financially.
Onwards and upwards as they say ... COYR.
But looking at Division One tables from the last few years prompted me to post again. Even with our great start, what are the real chances of promotion based on the last seven years records?
The answers are not only very revealing ... they are also quite intriguing. Yes, it can still all go wrong ... hard for us to wipe out the memories of the last few years ... but statistically it's looking extremely positive.
First of all, looking at the number of points that have been required over the last seven years in order to achieve promotion in 2nd spot ... and just to make things interesting, how many games the 2nd place team could afford to lose.
Season
|
Points for
automatic promotion (2nd place)
|
2nd place -
number of defeats
|
2010-2011
|
92
|
10
|
2009-2010
|
86
|
10
|
2008-2009
|
89
|
9
|
2007-2008
|
82
|
8
|
2006-2007
|
85
|
11
|
2005-2006
|
79
|
11
|
2004-2005
|
86
|
12
|
So using this table as the base, it means that an average of 86 points has been required to achieve promotion in 2nd place, whilst experiencing an average of 10 defeats throughout the season.
Average
points required for 2nd place
|
86
|
| Average defeats for 2nd place |
10
|
Looking at Charlton as of today, after 19 games and one defeat, we would appear to be in an incredibly strong position:
| Current CAFC points after 19 games |
46
|
Current CAFC
defeats after 19 games
|
1
|
| Target points for remaining 27 games to achieve 2nd place |
40
|
| Number of remaining games we can afford to lose |
9
|
So ... apparently 40 points to be obtained ... obviously many different permutations for this to be achieved ....
| 13 wins | 11 wins | 9 wins |
| 1 draw | 7 draws | 13 draws |
| 13 defeats | 9 defeats | 5 defeats |
.... but applying the seven season statistic that a team can lose 10 games, then the below is probably the closest we can get to foretelling how the season should pan out in order for us to go up:
12 wins
|
5 draws
|
10 defeats
|
Based on our existing form, this should be eminently achievable ... but of course all sorts of things could happen between now and May ... injuries, suspensions, other teams having incredible runs of form, etc.
However, what is very apparent is that this is now completely in our own hands ... 12 wins from the remaining 27 games, when we have already won 14 times in 19 games ... I don't need to expand any further to be honest.
Is this our year? Well, I rarely bet but before this season started I laid out a reasonable amount at the bookies backing Charlton for automatic promotion and it's certainly looking like the team had the same confidence that I had by taking this division by storm.
Whatever happens, I can safely say that we finally have our Charlton back after so many seasons of misery ... this team is committed to the cause, more than capable, and backed by one of the most promising managers in the league ... not forgetting of course the Mysterons in the background supporting us financially.
Onwards and upwards as they say ... COYR.
